20201107 经济学人 Free exchange Import substitution

Free exchange

Why is the idea of import substitution being revived?
为什么进口替代的想法开始复苏?

Past experience suggests its revival is unlikely to meet with success
过去的经验表明,这种复苏不太可能取得成功

2020年11月7日|

FOR THE past quarter-century, growth came so easily to the developing world that it can be hard to remember it was ever otherwise. Fuelled by globalisation, real GDP per person in emerging economies more than doubled from 1995 to 2019, in purchasing-power-parity terms. In advanced countries, by contrast, it grew by only 44%. The burst of growth consigned to the scrapheap decades’ worth of arguments about whether and how poor countries could catch up with rich ones. But explosive trade growth has ended, and the industrialised world is turning inward. Some governments are therefore dusting off old ideas. Among them is “import-substituting industrialisation” (ISI), a strategy that seeks to develop industrial capacity by shielding domestic producers from foreign competition. Many countries may feel they have little choice but to give the idea a try, but as the conditions that might allow it to succeed are generally absent in the poorest of economies, the revival seems doomed to fail.

在过去的四分之一世纪里,发展中国家的增长是如此轻松,以至于人们很难记住它曾经是什么样子。在全球化的推动下,按购买力平价计算,从1995年到2019年,新兴经济体的人均实际GDP增长了一倍以上。相比之下,在发达国家,仅增长了44%。几十年来,关于穷国能否以及如何赶上富国的争论,都被经济的爆发式增长抛到了九霄云外。但是爆炸性的贸易增长已经结束,工业化世界正在转向封闭。因此,一些政府的旧观念开始抬头。其中包括“进口替代工业化”(import-substituting industrialisation,ISI),该战略旨在通过使国内生产者免受外国竞争,从而发展工业能力。 许多国家可能觉得他们别无选择,只能尝试一下。但是由于最贫穷的经济体普遍缺乏使之成功的条件,复兴注定会失败。

注释: dust off:to prepare something for use, especially after it has not been used for a long time,在…好长一段时间没有使用后,重新启用…。这里dust off 的宾语是old ideas,所以这句话表示:旧观念重新抬头。

Between 1990 and 2008, global trade as a share of GDP rose from 39% to 61%. This “hyperglobalisation”, as Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics dubbed it, facilitated rapid, broad-based economic expansion. After the late 1990s growth in incomes per head in nearly three-quarters of developing countries outpaced that in America, by an average of more than three percentage points a year. Global supply chains proliferated. Countries with a small industrial base, or none at all, could export manufactured goods by finding niches in production chains, following a shortcut to industrialisation.

在1990年至2008年之间,全球贸易占GDP的比例从39%上升至61%。彼得森国际经济研究所的马丁·凯斯勒(Martin Kessler)和阿文德·苏伯拉曼(Arvind Subramanian)称之为“超全球化”,它促进了经济的快速发展以及无限制的经济扩张。1990年代后期以来,近四分之三的发展中国家的人均收入增速超过了美国,平均每年超过三个百分点。全球供应链激增。工业基础较小的国家或根本没有工业基础的国家可以通过在生产链中找到适当位置来出口制成品,走工业化的捷径。

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