Energy’s new world order 世界能源新秩序

The changing geopolitics of energy
变化的能源地缘政治

America’s domination of oil and gas will not cow China
美国对石油和天然气的统治不会吓倒中国

Being an importer of fossil fuels and an exporter of renewable technology is not so bad
作为化石燃料的进口国和可再生技术出口国也不算太坏

2020年9月17日 |纽约

“THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA is now the number-one energy superpower anywhere in the world,” President Donald Trump told oilmen in Midland, Texas this summer, from a stage decorated with gleaming black barrels. The sheer volume of hydrocarbons that such American oilmen have released from the shale beneath Midland and previously unforthcoming geology elsewhere gives substance to his boast (see chart 1). Over the past decade America’s oil output has more than doubled and its gas production increased by over 50%. America is now the world’s top producer of both fuels.

今年夏天,总统唐纳德·特朗普在德克萨斯州米德兰市一个装饰着闪闪发光黑桶的舞台上对石油商说:”美国现在是世界第一能源超级大国。如此数量的碳氢化合物被美国石油商从米德兰下面的页岩中释放,以及以前不可预测的其他地方的地质情况,使他的自夸有了依据(见图表1)。在过去的十年里,美国的石油产量增加了一倍多,天然气产量增加了50%以上。美国现在是世界上最大的石油和天然气生产国。

注:
unforthcoming:not characterized by openness, candidness, or forthrightness

Had they heard Mr Trump say that “We will never again be reliant on hostile foreign suppliers,” presidents from Franklin Roosevelt on might have nodded in envious approval. After the second world war America’s unmatched ability to consume oil outstripped its unmatched ability to produce it. Ensuring supplies from elsewhere became an overriding priority. The oil shock of the 1970s had a profound effect both on the economy and on geopolitics, driving much of America’s subsequent involvement in the Middle East. The surge in domestic supply in the 2010s both boosted the economy and opened up new geopolitical opportunities. America can apply sanctions to petrostates such as Iran, Venezuela and Russia with relative impunity.
如果他们听到特朗普先生说:“我们将不再依赖敌对的外国供应商”,那么从富兰克林·罗斯福开始的总统们可能会羡慕地点头表示赞同。二战后,美国无与伦比的石油消费能力超过了其无与伦比的石油生产能力。确保来自其他地方的供应成为压倒一切的优先事项。20世纪70年代的石油冲击对经济和地缘政治都产生了深远的影响,推动美国对中东的介入。2010年代国内供应的激增既提振了经济,又开辟了新的地缘政治机遇。美国可以对伊朗、委内瑞拉和俄罗斯等石油国家实施制裁,但美国自己不受惩罚。

注:
approval : an act or instance of approving something 
impunity:exemption or freedom from punishment, harm, or loss,免于处罚

But what it might mean to be an energy superpower is changing, thanks to three linked global shifts. First, fears about fossil-fuel scarcity have given way to an acknowledgment of their abundance. Not least because of what has been achieved in America, the energy industry now knows that it will be lack of demand, not lack of supply, which will cause production of oil, coal and, later, gas to dwindle. In its latest “World Energy Outlook”, published on September 14th, BP, an oil company which has recently said it plans to go carbon neutral, argues that demand for oil may already have peaked, and could go into steep decline (see chart 2 ).
但由于三个相互关联的全球变化,作为一个能源超级大国的意义正在发生变化。首先,化石燃料短缺成为共识。尤其是由于美国所取得的成就,能源工业现在知道将是需求不足,而不是供应不足,这将导致石油、煤炭和天然气的产量减少。在9月14日发表的最新《世界能源展望》中,英国石油公司(BP)最近表示计划采取碳中和的方式,认为对石油的需求可能已经达到顶峰,并可能急剧下降(见图表2)。

注:
carbon neutral:碳中和

This is because of the second shift: an acknowledgment by most countries that, for the sake of the climate, reliance on fossil fuels needs to come to an end. And that leads to the third shift: electrification. Fossil fuels provide heat that is mostly used to move things, be they vehicles or electric generators. Solar panels and wind turbines provide energy as electricity straight off. Maximising their emissions-free benefits means processes and devices that now rely on combustion must in future use currents and batteries instead. The BP analysis argues that in a world going all out for decarbonisation the share of energy used in the form of electricity would rise from about a fifth in 2018 to just over half in 2050.
这是因为第二个转变:大多数国家都承认,为了应对气候变化,需要结束对化石燃料的依赖。这导致了第三种转变:电气化。化石燃料提供的热量主要用于移动物体,无论是车辆还是发电机。太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机直接提供电能。最大化其无排放效益意味着现在依赖燃烧的程序和设备将来必须使用电流和电池代替。BP的分析认为,在一个全力以赴脱碳的世界中,以电能形式使用的能源份额将从2018年的约五分之一增加到2050年的一半以上。

注:
combustion :an act or instance of burning

Falling demand for fossil fuels will tilt the balance of power away from producers and towards consumers—though there will doubtless be reversals now and then along the way. And in a world which needs to generate much more fossil-free electricity, mass production of the means whereby to do so will become crucial, as will government backing and know-how in deployment. Being a mighty pumper of oil will do a lot less for America under such conditions than once it might have done. But China, the world’s biggest fossil-fuel importer as well as its leading exponent of renewable energy at gigawatt scales, will have the wind, as it were, at its back.
对化石燃料的需求下降将使力量平衡从生产者向消费者倾斜,尽管毫无疑问的是,这种方式会不时地发生逆转。在一个需要产生更多清洁电力的世界中,大规模发电的手段将变得至关重要,政府的支持和专业的部署也将变得至关重要。在这种情况下,作为一个强大的石油开采国,对美国的贡献将远不如过去。但是,中国是世界上最大的化石燃料进口国,也是千兆瓦级可再生能源的倡导者,它将搅动风云。

注:
tilt:to point or thrust in or as if in a tilt
exponent:one that champions, practices, or exemplifies,倡导者

The covid-19 pandemic has provided a dramatic preview of a world in which demand for oil falls instead of rising. When the globe stopped spinning in March, its thirst for oil suddenly subsided. Petrostates dependent on pricey oil for their spending now face gaping deficits. Investors have fallen out of love with oil companies. For all Mr Trump’s grateful boosterism, the value of America’s shale sector has fallen by more than 50% since January. ExxonMobil, an oil company included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1928, has been kicked off it. With a market capitalisation of $155bn it is worth considerably less than Nike, a shoemaker with a swoosh.
covid-19大流行病提供了一个戏剧性的预览,说明世界上石油需求下降而不是上升。当地球的商业活动在三月份因新冠疫情停摆时,对石油的渴求突然消退了。依靠昂贵的石油消费的石油国家现在面临巨大的赤字。投资者已经对石油公司没有了兴趣。自1月份以来,美国页岩气行业的价值已经下跌了50%以上。埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)是一家石油公司,自1928年起就被纳入道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average),它已被移出道琼斯工业平均指数。它的市值为1550亿美元,其价值远低于耐克(Nike)。

In the face of this turmoil China’s demand for oil imports, already the largest in the world, continues to grow—providing some welcome stability. The country’s independent refiners—the “teapots”—have become large enough that they help set oil’s price floor. “They are essentially the vacuum cleaner of the crude market,” says Per Magnus Nysveen of Rystad Energy, a consultancy. Michal Meidan, who leads China energy studies at Oxford University, points out that the trading arms of state-owned oil giants SINOPEC and China National Petroleum Corporation are now two of the three largest traders of crude cargoes priced on the Platts Dubai futures contract, which means they influence the price of crude bound for Asia. Low prices also allow China to build up its strategic reserves.
面对这种动荡,中国对石油进口的需求已经是世界上最大的需求,并继续增长,从而提供了一些可喜的稳定。该国的独立炼油厂(“茶壶”)已经足够大,可以帮助设定石油的价格底线。咨询公司 Rystad Energy 的 Per Magnus Nysveen 说:“它们本质上是原油市场的真空吸尘器。”牛津大学中国能源研究负责人米查尔·梅丹(Michal Meidan)指出,国有石油巨头中石化和中国石油天然气集团公司的交易部门现在是按普氏迪拜期货合约定价的三大原油交易者中的两个。意味着它们会影响运往亚洲的原油价格。低廉的价格也使中国得以建立战略储备。

Big finds off the coasts of Brazil and Guyana and the development of Australia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity, along with America’s shale boom, add to China’s opportunities; a buyers’ market is a good place to be the biggest buyer, notes Kevin Tu of Columbia and Beijing Normal Universities. There are plenty of bullish oilmen who think that, BP to the contrary, peak demand has yet to be reached. But even they recognise that the supply of oil below ground outstrips the thirst above it, and that competition for customers is likely to heat up.
巴西和圭亚那沿海的大型发现,澳大利亚的液化天然气(LNG)能力的发展和美国的页岩气繁荣,为中国增加了机遇。哥伦比亚大学和北京师范大学的 Kevin Tu 指出,买家市场是成为最大买家的好地方。有很多看涨的石油商认为,英国石油公司尚未达到需求峰值。但即使他们也意识到,石油供应超过了需求,争抢客户的竞争可能会加剧。

In some instances competition for Chinese demand may be straightforward. When it embarked on a price war with Russia this spring, Saudi Arabia slashed prices on shipments bound for China. The country’s biggest refiners are mulling a plan for a buying consortium to strengthen their negotiating power with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. China will probably also flex its financial muscle as petrostates buckle under debt. It has issued oil-backed loans to crude-rich countries such as Angola and Brazil for more than a decade.
在某些情况下,对中国需求的竞争可能是直接的。今年春天,当沙特阿拉伯与俄罗斯展开价格战时,它削减了运往中国的货物的价格。该国最大的炼油厂正在考虑一项收购财团的计划,以加强其与石油输出国组织(Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)的谈判能力。随着石油国陷入债务危机,中国可能还会发挥经济实力。十多年来,它已向安哥拉和巴西等原油资源丰富的国家提供了石油贷款。

注:
consortium:n.财团

China’s position as a buyer also allows it to undercut America’s attempts to squeeze oil exporters. Chinese buyers long continued to import Iranian and Venezuelan crude. Its energy alliance with Russia is particularly important.
中国作为买方的地位也使它削弱了美国挤压石油出口国的企图。长期以来,中国买家继续进口伊朗和委内瑞拉原油。它与俄罗斯的能源联盟尤其重要。

As energy expert Daniel Yergin points out in “The New Map” , Vladimir Putin realised the significance of energy relations with China early on; but the pivot to China became more urgent after the financial crisis of 2007-09. In 2009 the China Development Bank lent two state-controlled Russian companies, Rosneft, an oil producer, and Transneft, a pipeline builder and operator, $25bn in exchange for developing new fields and building a pipeline which would supply China with 300,000 barrels of oil a day.
正如能源专家丹尼尔·耶尔金(Daniel Yergin)在“新地图”中指出的那样,弗拉基米尔·普京很早就意识到了与中国建立能源关系的重要性。但是在2007-09年金融危机之后,进入中国变得更加紧迫。2009年,国家开发银行向俄罗斯的两家国有控股公司-石油生产商 Rosneft 和管道建设运营商 Transneft——提供了250亿美元的贷款,以换取开发新油田和建设向中国日供应30万桶石油的管道。

In 2014 Western sanctions over Crimea inspired Gazprom, another Russian energy giant, to commit to a long-haggled-over gas pipeline, the Power of Siberia, which opened last December. Tying in Chinese custom gives Russia a large market unmoved by calls for sanctions at a time when European demand is faltering. But as Erica Downs of Columbia University points out, “As soon as a pipeline is built, the balance of power shifts from supplier to buyer.” After the first oil pipeline was built, China refused to pay the agreed price.
2014年,西方对克里米亚的制裁激发了俄罗斯另一家能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)致力于建设一条天然气管道,西伯利亚力量(Power of Siberia),这条管道于去年12月开始投用。在欧洲需求动荡之际,以中国风俗习惯给俄罗斯提供了一个庞大的市场,而这一市场并未受到要求制裁的影响。但是正如哥伦比亚大学的埃里卡·唐斯(Erica Downs)指出的那样,“一旦管道建成,电力的平衡就会从供应商转移到买方。”在第一条输油管道建成后,中国拒绝支付商定的价格。

All this power in the market, though, cannot mask the geopolitical downside of relying on imports. Being a large importer may give you more power than being a smaller one; but it still leaves you vulnerable. China is acutely aware that much of its oil comes through the straits of Hormuz and Malacca, which could be closed by third-party conflicts or, in extremis, the US Navy. In recent months China’s concern about energy security has risen as relations with America have declined, notes Ms Meidan—for all the current talk of decoupling, China has been buying lots of LNG from America, as well as crude for its stockpiles. Communist Party documents for China’s new five-year plan emphasise the need for a more flexible, reliable energy system.
但是,市场上所有这些力量都无法掩盖依赖进口的地缘政治不利因素。成为大型进口商比小型进口商给您更多的权力。但仍然很脆弱。中国敏锐地意识到,其大部分石油来自霍尔木兹海峡和马六甲海峡,这些海峡可能会因第三方冲突或在极端情况下被美国海军封锁。梅丹指出,近几个月来,随着与美国关系的恶化,中国对能源安全的担忧有所上升。尽管目前有关脱钩的言论层出不穷,但中国一直从美国购买大量液化天然气(LNG)以及原油作为储备。中国新的五年计划制定文件时强调:需要一个更加灵活、可靠的能源系统。

What China lacks in oil and gas supplies it makes up for with industrial policy, which it has long been using to support domestic coal production and nuclear power as well as what is now by far the world’s largest renewables sector. Chinese companies have invested in mines from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to Chile and Australia, securing access to the minerals needed for solar panels, electric vehicles and the like. Unable to be a petrostate, it is becoming what one might call an electrostate, investing strategically all along the chain from mine to meter.
中国在石油和天然气供应方面的不足,通过产业政策加以弥补。长期以来,中国一直利用工业政策来支持国内煤炭生产和核电,以及目前世界上最大的可再生能源行业。中国企业在刚果民主共和国、智利和澳大利亚投资,确保了太阳能电池板、电动汽车等所需矿产的开采。由于无法成为一个石油生产国,它正在变成一个电子国家,在从矿到电能表的整个链条上进行战略性投资。

注:
electrostate:这个单词很有趣,electro+state组合而成。

This is not in itself anything like a triumph for climate action. China has more than 1,000 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity. This installed base, with which it generates 49% of the world’s coal-fired electricity, makes it the world’s biggest carbon-dioxide emitter. And its coal use is set to expand in the years to come.
这本身绝不是气候行动的胜利。中国拥有1000多千兆瓦的燃煤发电能力。这个装机容量占世界燃煤发电量的49%,是世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国。而且在未来几年,中国的煤炭使用量也将扩大。

Its wind and solar capacity of 445GW, vast though it is by most standards, is less than half coal’s total, and those renewables typically run at a much smaller fraction of their capacity than coal plants do. But China also has 356GW of hydropower capacity, more than the next four countries combined. It has been building nuclear power plants faster than any other country—the average age of the 48 reactors in its fleet is less than a decade—and intends to go on doing so; nuclear, which now produces less than 5% of the country’s electricity, is set to produce more than 15% by 2050.
其风能和太阳能发电量为445GW,虽然按大多数标准来说规模很大,但不到煤炭总容量的一半,而且这些可再生能源通常比燃煤电厂的发电量要小得多。但中国也有356GW的水电装机容量,超过其他四个国家的总和。中国建造核电站的速度比任何其他国家都要快——其核电站中48座反应堆的平均使用寿命不到10年;核能发电量目前不到该国总发电量的5%,预计到2050年发电量将超过15%。

The evolution of China’s nuclear, wind, solar and battery sectors varies somewhat, but the basic formula remains the same: learn from foreigners and then use massive investment and authoritarian dictat to support deployment on a very large scale. Subsidies at home and abroad have helped. Support for renewables in Europe in the 2000s created a demand for solar panels only Chinese firms, liberally aided by the state, could meet. Chinese battery giants, led by CATL, benefited from a policy that subsidised electric vehicles only if they used batteries from domestic suppliers.
中国的核、风电、太阳能和电池行业的发展变化有些不同,但基本公式仍然相同:向外国学习,然后利用大规模投资和行政命令来支持大规模部署。国内外的补贴也有所帮助。2000年代欧洲对可再生能源的支持,创造了对太阳能电池板的需求,只有中国公司在中国政府的宽松援助下才能满足欧洲的需求。以CATL(宁德时代新能源科技有限公司)为首的中国电池巨头,受益于一项政策,即只有使用国内供应商的电池,才能享受电动汽车补贴。

Fossil-fuel free as they are, these technologies still require raw materials. Wind and solar power need a lot more of some non-ferrous metals—notably, if unsurprisingly, copper—than systems which burn fossil fuels; batteries require niche materials in ways that fuel tanks do not. Generally, the world has plenty of these necessary commodities—but less capacity to get them to market than rapid decarbonisation requires. As Andy Leyland of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, a research firm, puts it, “There’s no geological shortage. It’s a financing shortage.” Mines which frequently go over budget and are too often delayed, sited in countries prone to instability, are not overwhelmingly alluring to most Western investors.
尽管这些产品不含化石燃料,但它们仍然需要原材料。风能和太阳能需要更多的有色金属,尤其是铜,如果不出意外的话,比燃烧化石燃料的系统更需要铜;电池需要特殊的材料,而燃料箱却不需要。一般来说,世界拥有大量这些必要的商品。经常超过预算、拖延,位于政局不稳定的国家的矿场,对大多数西方投资者来说并没有太大吸引力。

注:
prone: having a tendency or inclination being likely

Chinese companies have helped fill the gap. Some of this is through domestic investment. China produces 60% of the world’s “rare earths”, which have properties that make them useful in electric motors, among other things. They are not, generally, rare in a geological sense, but they can be in short supply. (They are also often mined in ways that do great damage to the local environment.)
中国企业帮助填补了这一空白。其中一些是通过国内投资。中国生产了世界60%的”稀土”,这些稀土具有在电机等方面有用的特性。一般来说,它们在地质学上并不罕见,但它们可能供不应求。(它们也经常以对当地环境造成巨大破坏的方式开采。)

For other metals China mostly has to look further afield. Tianqi, a private company, has a minority stake in SQM, Chile’s biggest miner of the lithium on which batteries depend. Tsingshan has invested in battery-grade-nickel projects in Indonesia. The DRC’s copper and cobalt have attracted Chinese investors for over a decade, and mines owned by others often send their output to China anyway. China refines more than twice as much lithium and eight times as much cobalt as any other country, according to BloombergNEF, a research outfit (see chart 3).
对于其他金属,中国大多必须往更远的地方看。一家私营公司天齐锂业(Tianqi)拥有智利最大的锂矿公司SQM的少数股权。青山(Tsingshan)在印尼投资了电池级镍项目。十多年来,刚果民主共和国的铜和钴吸引了中国投资者,而其他国家拥有的矿山也常常将矿石出口到中国。

Ivanhoe Mines, led by Robert Friedland, a veteran American miner, has had backing from two Chinese companies, CITIC and Zijin Mining, to build the world’s largest new copper mine in the DRC. Mr Friedland argues that Chinese investors look further into the fewer-fossil-fuels future than Western ones. “What do the batteries look like? Where is the supply chain?” These are questions, Mr Friedland says, where the Chinese “are probably ten years ahead”.
由美国资深矿商罗伯特弗里德兰(Robert Friedland)领导的艾芬豪矿业(Ivanhoe Mines)得到了中信和紫金矿业两家中国公司的支持,在刚果(金)建设了全球最大的新铜矿。弗里德兰认为,与西方国家相比,中国投资者对新能源的未来更为关注。“电池是什么样子的?供应链在哪里?这些都是问题,弗里德兰表示:中国人在这个领域领先十年”。

Politicians in America, Europe and Australia have expressed concern at Chinese control of minerals critical to not just energy but defence. A company backed by Bill Gates and other billionaires plans to search for cobalt in Quebec. America’s Development Finance Corporation is, for the first time, taking equity stakes in mining companies. One beneficiary is TechMet, which is betting that some investors will prefer mines independent of Chinese control. “It’s a very significant strategic issue for the United States and the West,” says Admiral Mike Mullen, a former chairman of America’s Joint Chiefs of Staff and now the head of TechMet’s advisory board. “I almost liken it to Huawei. We wake up and they’re in control of the world.”
美国、欧洲和澳大利亚的政界人士对中国控制矿产资源表示担忧,这些矿产不仅对能源而且对国防至关重要。一家由比尔·盖茨和其他亿万富翁支持的公司计划在魁北克寻找钴。美国发展金融公司首次入股矿业公司。其中一个受益者是TechMet,它押注于一些独立于中国控制的矿山。前美国参谋长联席会议主席、现任TechMet咨询委员会主席的海军上将迈克·马伦说:“这对美国和西方来说是一个非常重要的战略问题”。“我几乎把它比作华为。我们一觉醒来,他们就掌控了世界。”

China now produces more than 70% of the world’s solar modules. It is home to nearly half its manufacturing capacity for wind turbines. It dominates the supply chain for lithium-ion batteries, according to BloombergNEF, controlling 77% of cell capacity and 60% of component manufacturing. With its industries at such a scale, and support costs ballooning, subsidies for them have been cut. Last year China eased restrictions on foreign battery-makers, too
中国目前生产的太阳能组件占全球的70%以上。它拥有近一半的风力涡轮机制造能力。BloombergNEF称,在锂离子电池供应链中占据主导地位,控制着77%的电池产能和60%的零部件制造。去年,中国也放宽了对外国电池制造商的限制。

The rest of the world has benefited—the costs of solar panels and batteries have dropped by more than 85% in the past decade. “We will invest continuously in research to make sure we retain our leadership—in research and in mass production,” says Li Zhenguo, president of LONGi, a giant producer of solar modules. China is keen to set technical standards across a range of industries, hoping to shape the playing field for further innovation. For clean-energy technologies in particular, says Mr Tu, it has an edge.
太阳能电池板和电池的成本在过去十年里下降了85%以上。大型太阳能组件生产商隆基(LONGi)总裁李振国表示:“我们将持续投资于研究,以确保我们在研究和大规模生产方面保持领先地位”。中国热衷于制定一系列行业的技术标准,希望为进一步创新创造条件。Mr Tu说,尤其是在清洁能源技术方面,它具有优势。

Though it has successful and influential innovators such as Tesla (see article), in this part of the energy world Mr Trump’s superpower looks like an also-ran. His rival in this November’s election, Joe Biden, promises to get back in the race. Developed countries elsewhere are further along. Panasonic in Japan and LG Chem in South Korea are both making innovations in battery technology. Europe’s generous support has provided a big market for the world’s top wind turbine manufacturers, Siemens Gamesa, which has its headquarters in Spain, and Vestas of Denmark.
尽管美国拥有成功并且有影响力的创业者,比如 Tesla。在能源世界,特朗普的超级大国看起来像是一个失败者。乔·拜登(特朗普在今年11月大选中的竞争对手)承诺将重返新能源竞赛。其他发达国家则走得更远。日本的松下(Panasonic)和韩国的LG Chem都在电池技术方面进行创新。欧洲的慷慨支持为世界顶级风力涡轮机制造商西门子Gamesa(总部位于西班牙)和丹麦的维斯塔斯(Vestas)提供了一个巨大的市场。

注:
an also-ran:失败者
promises to get back in the race:这里的 race 指新能源竞赛

And Europe’s green ambitions are growing. In her state-of-the-EU address on September 16th, Ursula van der Leyen said that the European Commission, of which she is president, will be pressing for carbon emissions 55% below those of 1990 by 2030. This means European utilities are expected to provide both a large increase in capacity and a near-zero-emissions future. To do so they will have to buy yet more hardware from China. But Europe’s aggressive strategy gives them an opportunity to take the lead in developing the systems which put that kit to work, both at home and abroad, as well as in technologies China has yet to master.
欧洲的绿色雄心也在增长。乌苏拉·范德莱恩(Ursula van der Leyen)在9月16日的欧盟国情咨文中说,她担任欧盟主席的欧盟委员会(European Commission)将要求到2030年碳排放量比1990年低55%。这意味着欧洲公用事业公司预计将大幅增加产能,并在未来实现近乎零排放。为此,他们将不得不从中国购买更多的硬件。但欧洲积极的战略让他们有机会在国内外以及中国尚未掌握的技术领域,率先开发出能让这套设备发挥作用的系统。

Visit a wind farm in America’s heartland and you may well find an office of Electricité de France (EDF) nestled among the corn. Enel, a utility which has its headquarters in Italy, is the single largest investor in wind and solar projects in developing countries, according to BloombergNEF, with France’s Engie and Spain’s Iberdrola not far behind. Orsted, a Danish firm, is the world’s top developer of offshore wind.
参观美国中心地带的一个风电场,你可能会发现法国电力公司(EDF)就坐落在玉米地里。根据BloombergNEF 的数据,总部设在意大利 Enel 公司是发展中国家风能和太阳能项目的最大投资方,法国的 Engie 公司和西班牙的 Iberdrola 公司紧随其后。丹麦公司Orsted是世界上最大的海上风电开发商。

China’s national champions have invested ambitiously in power projects abroad, too. Of the roughly $575bn invested or promised under China’s Belt and Road Initiative as of 2019, nearly half has gone to energy projects, according to the World Bank. But most of this has been on coal plants, nuclear reactors and dams. And nations wary of China’s influence and motives treat its advances with suspicion. Efforts by State Grid, the world’s biggest utility, to buy stakes in European electricity companies have been rebuffed. In Britain, state-owned China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) has minority stakes in two nuclear plants being built by EDF, but a plant to be built by CGN itself is years away from approval which may not come at all.
中国的大公司也雄心勃勃地投资于海外的电力项目。根据世界银行的数据,在2019年度中国一带一路投资承诺的投资总额约为575亿美元的基础上,近一半的资金已经投入到能源项目中。但大部分资金都集中在火力发电厂、核反应堆和大坝上。对中国的影响力和动机持谨慎态度的国家对中国的进步持怀疑态度。世界最大的公用事业公司国家电网(State Grid)购买欧洲电力公司股份的努力遭到拒绝。国有企业中国通用核电集团(CGN)在法国电力公司(EDF)正在建设的两座核电站中拥有少数股权,但一座由中广核自己建造的核电站距离批准还有几年时间,可能根本就不会获得批准。

Nevertheless Chinese companies are starting to invest more in wind and solar power abroad. China Three Gorges, a big power company, said in August that it would buy half a gigawatt of Spanish solar capacity from X-Elio, a developer based in Madrid. Last year CGN bought more than 1GW of wind and solar farms in Brazil.
尽管如此,中国企业开始加大对国外风能和太阳能的投资。大型电力公司中国三峡8月份表示,将从马德里的开发商 X-Elio 手中购买5亿瓦的西班牙太阳能发电能力。去年,中广核在巴西购买了超过1兆瓦的风能和太阳能发电厂。

To maximise its electrostate power China needs to combine its renewable, and possibly nuclear, manufacturing muscle with deals that let its companies supply electricity in a large number of countries. The International Renewable Energy Agency has suggested that such “infrastructure diplomacy” might prove as important to Chinese power in the 21st century as the protection of sea lanes was to American power in the 20th. If it uses it deftly, the energy transition could bring it advantages beyond any achievable with rigs, derricks and pipelines.
为了最大化 electrostate power,中国需要联合可再生能源(可能是核能)制造业的力量。国际可再生能源署(International Renewable Energy Agency)表示,在21世纪,这种“基础设施外交”对中国的重要性与20世纪保护海上航道对美国一样重要。如果能巧妙地利用,能源转换将带来比钻机、井架和管道更大的优势。

Energy’s new world order 世界能源新秩序”的一个响应

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